A Chancellor on the Second Attempt: Friedrich Merz’s Chaotic Election Exposes a Fractured Germany

In an extraordinary display of political fragility, Germany’s Bundestag delivered a stunning and unprecedented rebuke to its chancellor-designate on Tuesday. Friedrich Merz, the 69-year-old conservative, ultimately secured the chancellorship, but only on a second ballot. His failure to win a majority in the first round—a first in post-war German history—exposed deep fractures within his new coalition before it was even formed. The day of high political tension concluded with Merz in power, but only after hours of intense negotiations to quell the intra-party rebellion.

This chaotic start perfectly encapsulates the man and the moment. Merz, the long-time rival of Angela Merkel, finally assumes the office he has coveted for decades, following the collapse of Olaf Scholz’s government. He does so with a broad and ambitious agenda: to restore economic growth, tighten immigration policy, and radically redefine Germany’s role on the world stage by making Europe “independent” from the United States. However, he begins this project with a fragile coalition, rock-bottom popularity, and a mandate that is visibly fractured before his government has even been sworn in.

An Unprecedented Rebuke

The events of Tuesday in the Bundestag were a stark illustration of Merz’s precarious position. To be invested, he required the so-called “Chancellor’s majority” of 316 votes, representing more than half of the 630 members of the lower house. His newly formed “grand coalition”—comprising his own centre-right CDU/CSU bloc (208 seats) and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) (120 seats)—commands 328 seats on paper, a thin but workable 12-vote margin.

In the morning’s secret ballot, however, Merz received only 310 votes. This stunning failure meant that at least 18 deputies from his own nascent coalition refused to back him. With the opposition parties voting against him, the numbers suggested at least five coalition members actively voted ‘no’ while others abstained. The session was suspended, leaving deputies perplexed and plunging the capital into a political crisis.

Consequently, the day’s events cast a long shadow over the new government. After a frantic afternoon of negotiations, Merz finally secured 325 votes in the second round, nine more than the minimum. Alice Weidel, leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), immediately seized on the drama, calling it a demonstration of “how fragile the foundations of this coalition are” and demanding new elections. The Greens’ parliamentary leader, Britta Hasselmann, noted that trust in Merz and his SPD partners had been “shattered” from day one.

The Eternal Rival: A Portrait of Ambition

For Merz, however, the precarious victory is the culmination of what analysts describe as a “tortuous career” defined by ambition and grievance. Born into a conservative Catholic family in 1955, his path through law and politics was conventional, but his personality was not. He joined the CDU while still in school, served in the European Parliament, and entered the Bundestag in 1994, quickly gaining a reputation as a “splendid orator” and an ambitious star of the party’s right wing.

His rise seemed assured until he collided with Angela Merkel. In 2002, Merkel sidelined him from the party’s top ranks. Frustrated, Merz left politics in 2009 for a lucrative transatlantic career in the private sector, most notably as chairman of the German subsidiary of BlackRock, the global asset manager.

This period in the “political wilderness” coincided with Merkel’s imperial phase. When she resigned the party leadership in 2018, Merz launched a comeback that sources close to him describe as almost Shakespearean. “There is some truth to the claim that he is only seeking the top job as revenge against Merkel,” a CDU official who has worked with him noted. Yet, his flaws—described as “complacency, arrogance, and an air of superiority”—led him to lose leadership contests in 2018 and again in January 2021. The party, running out of options, finally turned to him in early 2022.

Colleagues describe a man of contradictions. He has impressed many with his energetic and demanding “American CEO style.” Yet, in private, he is known to be “sentimental, even emotional,” especially around children. Publicly, however, he struggles with what forthcoming biographer Mariam Lau calls a “resentful, choleric side,” noting, “No one knows when it’s going to surface.”

A ‘Leader’ Without Followers?

This demanding, often abrasive, approach has failed to win over the German public. Merz takes office with his popularity at an all-time low. According to an April 2025 Forsa poll, only 21 per cent of Germans consider him trustworthy—a nine-point drop since the previous August. Only 40 per cent view him as a strong leader, and a mere 27 per cent believe he “knows what people are worried about.”

This deep distrust is not without cause; it has been fuelled by a series of high-profile contradictions and erratic decisions.

The first major blow to his credibility came in January, during the election campaign. In a move that shattered a post-war taboo, Merz sought and used the support of the far-right AfD to pass a symbolic anti-immigration measure. The move backfired spectacularly, sparking nationwide protests and drawing two public condemnations from Angela Merkel herself. Although Merz insists there are “insurmountable ideological differences” with the AfD, the gambit damaged him.

Furthermore, an even more serious reversal came in March. After campaigning on a platform of fiscal rectitude, Merz performed a stunning U-turn and agreed with the SPD and Greens to reform the constitutional debt ceiling. This change paves the way for up to €1 trillion ($1.14 trillion) in new loans. According to a ZDF poll, 73 per cent of Germans—including 44 per cent of his own CDU supporters—agreed he had “misled voters.” Merz himself later admitted, “I know I have taken out a very large loan… also in terms of my personal credibility.”

In addition to these policy reversals, Merz struggles with longstanding image problems. He is deeply unpopular with women; a March 2024 poll showed he was the favoured candidate for only 9 per cent of women aged 18-29. This is attributed by critics to accusations of misogyny, exemplified by his 1997 vote against criminalizing marital rape.

The ‘Merz Doctrine’: A New Path for Germany

Despite this domestic fragility, Merz’s most ambitious plans lie on the global stage. In a move that signals a seismic break from decades of German foreign policy, Merz declared his “absolute priority” would be to make Europe “independent” from the United States.

This statement, made in response to warnings from President Trump about US defence guarantees, has rattled allies. Merz has openly questioned the future of NATO and directly equated the “massive pressure” from Washington with that from Moscow. This is a radical departure from the staunch Atlanticism that defined the Merkel era.

The context for this shift is, of course, the war in Ukraine and the growing fear of Russian expansion. With uncertainty looming over the US commitment to Europe, Merz is arguing for “strategic autonomy.” His solution is the creation of an autonomous European defence, including a European nuclear umbrella coordinated with France and the United Kingdom.

Grand Gestures, Severe Constraints

However, Merz’s grand vision collides with immediate geopolitical and domestic realities. Germany is not a nuclear power, its army suffers from significant equipment shortages, and it hosts some 35,000 US troops who are seen as a core security guarantee.

His ability to project strength abroad is also severely limited by his weakness at home. He must steer an economy that is only just emerging from recession. Politically, the AfD is not just a fringe party; it finished second in the February election with 20.9 per cent of the vote. Merz’s genuine disdain for the AfD is complicated by growing factions within his own CDU, particularly in eastern Germany, that wish to dismantle the Brandmauer (cordon sanitaire) that forbids cooperation.

This combination of low popularity, a U-turn on his core fiscal promise, and a fragile coalition means his political capital is already depleted. As The Economist noted, “the political capital Merz has burned through even before taking office will limit his ability to make further grand gestures abroad.”

Conclusion: A Will to Power, A Capricious Nature

Friedrich Merz, Germany’s oldest newly elected chancellor in 75 years, has finally grasped the power he has sought for over two decades. He has achieved his “unconditional will to power.” He takes the helm of a deeply fractured nation, leading a “grand coalition” that, with only 45 per cent of the electorate, is a pale shadow of the 80 per cent such alliances once commanded. He promises a new, stronger, more conservative Germany, yet he does so with a mandate built on the shakiest of foundations.

In my view, the central question of this chancellorship is not what Merz will do, but which Merz will do it. Will it be the “profound thinker” his allies describe? Or will it be the “resentful, choleric” figure analysts warn of, a man whose “capricious nature” leads to erratic decisions and whose greatest enemy has always been himself?

Ultimately, this chaotic election in Berlin feels less like an isolated incident and more like a symptom of a wider governmental crisis gripping Europe. We are witnessing a systemic breakdown of stable, popular leadership. Look at the United Kingdom, which has cycled through five prime ministers in a period of deep instability, or France, which has been paralysed by a hung parliament and a series of collapsing minority governments. From Paris to London, and now Berlin, leaders are deeply unpopular, governing with fragile mandates. The problem is undeniably complex, but this persistent weakness and lack of unified direction is not happening in a vacuum. It projects an image of a continent adrift. One must ask: has this power vacuum offered calculated ideas to leaders like Vladimir Putin, who are known to view Western political crises as strategic opportunities? Perhaps. In geopolitics, very little is an accident.

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